Abstract：Research purposes ； More and more attentions are paid to the decision-making level and management level of urban mass transit construction and its benefits. As an important management part of construction，the post-assessment is the best way for it. This paper discusses the post - assessment of financial benefits of urban mass transit construction based on the fluctuant passenger traffic volume.
Research results ： According to the characteristics of urban mass transit construction and fluctuant property of passenger traffic volume, this paper analyzes the content of the post - assessment of financial benefit and presents a stochastic gray systemic model for the post - assessment of financial benefit. Application of the GM (1,1) model forecasts and fits the passenger traffic volume to obtain passenger flow data as the basic data for the post -assessment of financial benefit so as to research the theory and method for post - assessment of financial benefit of urban mass transit construction. The calculation result shows that the GM (1,1) model can better indicate the change rules of passenger traffic volume with good extrapolating property and precision and can be applied in the post-assessment of financial benefit of urban rail transit construction.
向红，陈福贵. 基于客运量波动的城市轨道交通项目财务效益后评价分析[J]. 铁道工程学报, 2008, 25(12): 103-106.
XIANG Hong, CHEN Fu-gui. Discussion on Post - assessment of Financial Benefit of Urban Mass Transit Construction Based on the Fluctuant Passenger Traffic Volume. 铁道工程学报, 2008, 25(12): 103-106.
2008, Vol. 25 
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