Abstract：Research purposes: In order to predict tunnel deformation developments，this paper proposed the optimal combination prediction model of tunnel deformation，based on literature review and the number of gray relational degree OWGA operators，using the latest nonlinear predictive theory，combined with specific engineering practice. Taking the logarithm of the gray relational degree between predictive value sequence and the observational value sequence as the objective function，integrated ordered geometric weight based on prediction accuracy. The analyses using the MATLAB in Grey，exponential smoothing, ARMA and the new model are to test the effectiveness and the rationality of the new model.
Research conclusions:Compared to grey prediction，smoothing prediction，ARMA prediction，the prediction accuracy of optimal combination prediction of tunnel deformation based on the number of gray relational degree OWGA operators is higher with minimum error. Its forecasting result is not only reasonable and effective，but also is optimal. This research can be applied to tunnel safety monitoring and deformation prediction field.
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2014, Vol. 31 
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