长春至白城铁路扩能客运量设计方法研究

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Abstract Research purposes：Four stages method applies in forecasting passenger flow of passenger dedicated line extensively and succeed．But few common railway projects use this way in passenger flow forecasting．In pace with advancing of serve，the common railway has stronger competitive power，and leads to be more difficult in passenger flow forecasting．The passenger flow forecasting in railway of Changchun—Baicheng，based on four stages method， combined the traditional method on passenger flow forecasting，ensured the result of passenger flow forecasting being close to the actual result of the project．

Research conclusions：Four stages method applies in forecasting passenger flow of the project of Changchun-Baicheng Railway indicates：(1)Four stages method applies in forecasting passenger flow of common railway as well as applies in Passenger-Dedicated Line；(2)Compared with the traditional methods，four stages method applies in forecasting passenger flow of common railway is advanced and more credibility；(3)The result of the passenger flow forecasting is more fit for the design annual，this study is significant and also useful for the similar projects to reference．

Key words： railway promotion passenger flow forecasting four stages method

Received: 02 May 2013

PACS:

U212

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	CHEN Yu
	ZHANG Meng-tao

Cite this article:

CHEN Yu,ZHANG Meng-tao. Research on the Method of Railway Promotion Design for Changchun Baicheng[J]. 铁道工程学报, 2013, 30(12): 15-18.

URL:

http://tdgcxb.crec.cn/EN/ OR http://tdgcxb.crec.cn/EN/Y2013/V30/I12/15

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