1 .Shandong University of Science and Technology，Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Civil Engineering Disaster Prevention and Mitigation，Qingdao，Shandong 266590，China;2. Offshore Oil Engineering Co. Ltd，Tianjin 300452， China
Abstract：Research purposes: The advanced small pipe grouting can effectively improve the stability of surrounding rock，however, there is a long time to reach the stability of surrounding rock after grouting in actual construction，so predicting grouting effect of surrounding rock early is of great practical significance. GM(1，1)model，as a relatively simple time function of surrounding rock variation，can be used to predict the divergence of surrounding rock. However， the traditional GM(1，1)model has limitations in complex geological conditions. This paper changes the old model and makes it better，which is helpful for guiding the follow-up construction.
Research conclusions:(1)GM(1，1)model can accurately predict the grouting effect，and its accuracy relates to the influence factors and complexity of surrounding rock.(2)The degree of improvement of GM(1，1)model based on optimization of background value depends on the prediction accuracy of the model. The improved model is suitable for complex surrounding rock which has more influence factors.(3)This paper based the engineering example，the calculation was compared with the actual value to verify the accuracy of the improved grey model，which can provide some reference to predict the grouting effect of surrounding rock.
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2013, Vol. 30 
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