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| Study on Economic Feasibility Evaluation for Railway's Risk Control |
| SHI Jing, LI Xi-lin, TAN Jin-hua |
| Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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Abstract Research purposes: The railways in China are affected by natural disasters seriously. Thus it is necessary to do the disaster prevention engineering in order to prevent the natural disasters and reduce the risk of railway. It is also necessary to evaluate the economic feasibility for the decision-making of the disaster prevention engineering.
Research conclusions: The discretization of probability function varying with time and relating to seasonal disaster to the railway is conducted with the probability theory to consider the seasonality in the economic evaluation of the various seasonal disaster prevention engineerings. The result shows that the ratio of the net present value and benefit-cost is more realistic on consideration of the seasonal factor. Therefore, considering the seasonal factor is better than assuming the uniform occurrence of disasters, and its calculation result for evaluating the economic feasibility of railway's seasonal disaster prevention engineering is more scientific.
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Received: 21 September 2012
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2013, Vol. 30 
