隧道施工进度及成本动态预测与控制研究

PDF(565 KB)

铁道工程学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1) : 115.

隧道工程

隧道施工进度及成本动态预测与控制研究

胡兰1 李涛2 仇文革2

作者信息 +

Study of Dynamic Prediction and Control about Tunnel Construction Schedule and Cost

HU Lan1，LI Tao2, QIU Wen-ge2

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

研究目的：隧道地质及施工的随机、模糊、不确定性，导致在施工过程中实际施工进度及成本动态可变，加大其控制难度。如何综合其影响因素动态预测与控制隧道施工进度及成本仍需进一步研究。
研究结论：（1）以隧道正洞里程为主轴线，选取各围岩级别下的月进尺及对应单延米成本、围岩级别变更概率、各风险事故统计参数(不同风险等级下的发生概率、处理时间及成本)等为随机变量，蒙特卡洛模拟构建隧道施工进度及成本的函数关系模型；（2）在此基础上，建立隧道动态控制评价指标及评价标准，为工程管理人员全面、及时掌握实际施工状态，快速、准确调整隧道施工进度及成本计划，提供一种更科学的决策手段；（3）通过对某双线隧道进行实证研究，验证该模型的实用性与可行性，其理论方法可供同类工程借鉴。



Abstract

Abstract：Research purposes：Fuzziness, randomness and uncertainty in tunnel geological conditions and construction, made its actual schedule and cost dynamic and variable in the construction process, increasing the difficulty to control. How to integrate its impact factor for predicting and controlling tunnel construction schedule and cost dynamically still need to be further studied.
Research conclusions：（1） With the main hole mileage in tunnel as the principal axis, drilled footage per month and cost in single linear meter of tunnel surrounding rock classification, tunnel surrounding rock change probability, risk accident statistical parameters(probability of occurrence, the processing time and cost under different level of risk) were selected as random variables, then a function relation model of tunnel construction schedule and cost was built by Monte Carlo Simulation. （2） The tunnel dynamic control evaluation index and evaluation standard was set up on top of that. A new decision method was provided for project managers by getting a full grasp with actual construction state timely and adjusting plans of schedule and cost quickly and accurately. （3） An empirical study of double-line tunnel tested its practicability and feasibility, to use for reference in similar projects.

导出引用

胡兰1 李涛2 仇文革2. 隧道施工进度及成本动态预测与控制研究[J]. 铁道工程学报, 2015, 32(1): 115

HU Lan1，LI Tao2, QIU Wen-ge2. Study of Dynamic Prediction and Control about Tunnel Construction Schedule and Cost[J]. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 2015, 32(1): 115

参考文献

［1］Mario Golger, Giorhio, H.O, Friedrich Prinzl. The Pir Panjal Railway Tunnel［J］. Geomechanics and Tunneling, 2014(2) : 133-141.
［2］Pillai A S, Tiwari A K. Enhanced PERT for Programme Analysis, Control and Evaluation: Pace［J］. International Journal of Project Management, 1995(1) : 39-43.
［3］Kim K, Jesús M. de la Garza. Critical Path Method with Multiple Calenders［J］. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management-ASCE, 2005(3):330-342.
［4］Wilde E. Engineering Project Control［J］. Project Management, 1995(12):279-283.
［5］范南春. 灰色系统理论在瀑布沟水电站泄洪洞工程进度控制中的运用［D］. 成都：四川大学, 2005.
Fan Nanchun. Application of Gray System Theory in Discharge Tunnel Schedule Control at Pubugou Hydropower Station［D］. Chengdu: Sichuan University, 2005.
［6］胡连兴. 复杂长距离引水隧洞群施工全过程仿真优化与进度控制关键技术研究［D］. 天津：天津大学, 2012.
Hu Lianxin. Research on the Key Technology in the Complex Long Distance Diversion Tunnel Groups Based on the Whole Construction Process Simulation Optimization and Schedule Control［D］. Tianjin: Tianjin University, 2012.
［7］王仁超, 欧阳斌, 褚春超. 工程网络计划蒙特卡洛仿真及进度风险分析［J］. 计算机仿真, 2004(4):143-147.
Wang Renchao, Ouyang Bin, Chu Chunchao. Monte Carlo Simulation of Project Network Planning and Schedule Risk Analysis［J］. Computer Simulation, 2004(4):143-147.
［8］张云波. 工程项目工期延误原因及预警模型研究［D］. 天津：天津大学, 2003.
Zhang Yunbo. The Study on the Cause of Delay & the Model of Early Warning in Construction Project［D］. Tianjin: Tianjin University, 2003.