铁路桥梁与四电工程技术接口进度风险分析

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摘要 研究目的:为实现对艰险山区铁路桥梁工程进度优化控制,以桥梁与四电工程技术接口为研究主体,考虑技术接口施工的风险影响,构建了耦合BBNs和CSRAM的技术接口实施进度风险分析模型。
研究结论:(1)识别艰险山区铁路桥梁与四电工程技术接口施工潜在风险,利用 BBNs量化风险相互关系对技术接口施工进度产生的非叠加性影响,并计算技术接口风险因素概率边界;(2)运用 CSRAM法分析风险因素在技术接口施工过程中的随机变化规律和风险因素与施工进度的相互关系;通过耦合BBNs和CSRAM法,利用Monte Carlo法对技术接口实施进度风险进行仿真,并对风险因素进行敏感性分析;(3)以绒乡雅鲁藏布江特大桥与四电工程为例,对其技术接口进行进度仿真与敏感度分析,结果表明:技术接口在风险影响下的完工日期为644 d,完工概率为89.92%,技术接口管理落实情况为影响技术接口施工进度最敏感的因素;(4)本研究可为艰险山区铁路桥梁技术接口进度管理提供参考。

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	鲍学英
	李亚娟
	胡所亭
	班新林
	王琳
	许见超

关键词 ：技术接口, 风险因素, BBNs, CSRAM法, 敏感度分析

Abstract：Research purposes: In order to realize the optimization control of the project schedule of the railway bridge in arduous mountainous areas, the technical interface between bridge and four electric/electronic systems engineering is the main research body, the risk impact of the construction of the technical interface is considered, a risk analysis model of the implementation schedule of the technical interface coupling BBNs and CSRAM is constructed.
Research conclusions:(1) Identify the potential risks in the construction of technical interfaces between railway bridges in arduous mountainous areas and the four electric/electronic systems engineering, use BBNs to quantify the non-superimposed impact of the risk relationship on the construction progress of the technical interfaces, and calculate the probability boundaries of risk factors for the technical interfaces. (2) Use the CSRAM method to analyze the random variation of risk factors in the construction process of the technical interface and the relationship between the risk factors and the construction schedule; by coupling the BBNs and CSRAM method, use the Monte Carlo method to simulate the implementation schedule risk of the technical interface, and carry out sensitivity analysis on risk factors. (3) Taking the Yarlung Zangbo River Bridge and the four electric/electronic systems engineering in Rongxiang as an example, the progress simulation and sensitivity analysis of their technical interfaces are carried out, the results show that the completion date of the technical interface under the influence of risk is 644 days and the completion probability is 89.92%. The implementation of the technical interface management is the most sensitive factor affecting the construction schedule of the technical interface. (4) This research can provide reference for the schedule management of railway bridge technical interface in difficult mountainous areas.

Key words： technical interface risk factors BBNs CSRAM method sensitivity analysis

收稿日期: 2021-08-20

PACS:

U24

基金资助:国家自然科学基金科学部综合研究项目(71942006);中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司基金(2020YJ218)

作者简介: ^**鲍学英,1974年出生,女,教授,博士生导师。

引用本文:

鲍学英, 李亚娟, 胡所亭, 班新林, 王琳, 许见超. 铁路桥梁与四电工程技术接口进度风险分析[J]. 铁道工程学报, 2022, 39(9): 85-92.
BAO Xueying, LI Yajuan, HU Suoting, BAN Xinlin, WANG Lin, XU Jianchao. Schedule Risk Analysis of Technical Interface between Railway Bridge and Four Electric/Electronic Systems Engineering. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 2022, 39(9): 85-92.

链接本文:

https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/CN/ 或 https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/CN/Y2022/V39/I9/85

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