研究目的: 地铁车站突发火灾应急联动影响因素具有较强的复杂性、耦合性和不确定性,各应急部门难以采取精确、高效的应急联动处置。为分析应急联动的影响因素及其因果关系,本文基于等级全息模型建立地铁车站突发火灾应急联动影响因素指标体系,借助贝叶斯网络模型分析各个指标的因果关系,并进行不同火灾发展阶段的节点因果推理。
研究结论: (1)从可控及不可控两个层面,结合不同火灾发展阶段从火情控制能力、环境影响、二次事故及应急救援四方面构建了应急联动影响因素指标体系,包括二级指标13个,三级指标30个;(2)结合贝叶斯网络建立应急联动影响因素网络模型,全面准确地描述各影响因素间因果关系及状态概率;(3)以不同火灾发展阶段特征为依据进行节点状态设定,推理得出人员密度是影响应急联动的关键因素,应急救援是火灾应急联动的根本决定因素;(4)本研究成果可为地铁车站突发火灾应急联动决策提供理论参考。
Abstract
Research purposes: The influencing factors of emergency response for sudden fire in metro stations have strong complexity, coupling and uncertainty, and it is difficult for emergency departments to adopt accurate and efficient emergency response disposal. In order to analyze the influencing factors and causality of emergency response, this paper establishes an indicator system of the influencing factors of emergency response of metro station sudden fire based on the hierarchical holographic model, expounds the causality of each indicator with the help of Bayesian network model, and carries out node causal reasoning of different fire development stages.
Research conclusions: (1) From the controllable and uncontrollable levels, combined with different fire development stages, an indicator system of four aspects of emergency response influencing factors, including fire control capability, environmental impact, secondary accidents and emergency rescue, has been constructed, including 13 secondary indicators and 30 tertiary indicators. (2) Combined with Bayesian network, the network model of influencing factors of emergency response is established, which can fully and accurately reflect the causal relationship and state probability among influencing factors. (3) According to the characteristics of different fire development stages, the node status is set, and the inference is that the personnel density is the key factor affecting the emergency response, and the emergency rescue is the fundamental determinant of the fire emergency response. (4) The research results can provide a theoretical basis for emergency response decision-making of sudden fire in metro stations.
关键词
地铁车站 /
火灾应急联动 /
贝叶斯网络 /
影响因素
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Key words
metro station /
fire emergency response /
Bayesian network /
influencing factor
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中图分类号：
X928.7
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脚注
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基金
河北省军民融合发展研究课题(HB21JMRH014)
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