铁路客站工程造价影响因素敏感性研究

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摘要研究目的：铁路客运站结构体系中影响工程造价的因素繁多复杂，对同一结构形式，受面积、柱距、层高等因素的影响，其造价存在较大差异。按照中长期铁路网规划，尚未建设的铁路客运站数量和投资规模较大，在满足安全、功能和建筑要求的前提下，系统地研究影响铁路客运站结构体系工程造价的敏感因素及其敏感关系，对用好铁路客运站建设资金是十分必要和迫切的。研究结论：（1）本文依托大量已建铁路客运站的结构及造价数据，采用主成分分析方法，对影响侧式站房结构体系工程造价的诸多影响因素进行了分析研究，得到了影响工程造价的敏感因素为站房面积、站房结构高度、抗震设防烈度、楼盖结构体系类型、楼盖结构投影面积等。（2）在此基础上，应用多元线性逐步回归分析方法研究得到了主要敏感因素站房面积、楼盖柱结构高度及屋盖钢结构投影面积对工程造价的敏感程度，当站房面积变化+10%和-10%时，结构体系工程造价的变化幅度较大，分别为7.02%和-6.19%；当楼盖柱结构高度变化+10%和-10%时，工程造价的变化幅度分别为2.71%和-2.61%；当屋盖钢结构投影面积变化+10%和-10%时，工程造价的变化幅度分别为3.58%和-3.38%。（3）本研究成果从投资角度为铁路客站站房设计工作提供了优化方向，可为投资控制相关研究领域提供参考。

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关键词 ：铁路客站, 工程造价, 敏感性研究, 主成分分析

Abstract：Abstract：Research purposes： Influence factors of the construction project investment of railway station buildings are very complex. For the same structural form, there is a big difference of the construction cost because of the different area, column space and floor height etc. According to the medium and long-term railway network planning, a large number of railway station buildings will be built. In the premise of safety, function and construction requirements, it is necessary and urgent to systematically research the sensitive factors of the construction cost of the railway-station building and the sensitivity degree, and it will be very helpful to the better using of the railway-station building investment. Research conclusions：(1)In this paper, based on the mass data of established railway station buildings, the method of principal component analysis is used to analyze the complex factors of the construction costs, and the sensitive factors are obtained. (2) On this basis, the sensitivity degree of the most sensitive factors are calculated through the multiple linear stepwise regression analysis, and the results provide the guide direction for the optimization design of the railway station buildings.When the area of station building change+10% and -10%, the construction cost change 7.02% and -6.19%; when the height of floor column change +10% and -10%, the construction cost change 2.71% and -2.61%; when theprojected area of the steel structure of the roof change +10% and -10%, the construction cost change 3.58% and -3.38%. (3) The research results can provide the optimizing direction of the design of railway station buildings from the angle of investment, and some references to related area of investment control

Key words： Key words: railway station buildings construction costs sensitivity analysis principal component analysis

基金资助:铁道部科技研究开发计划项目（2010G009-F）

作者简介: 魏庆朝，1957年出生，男，教授；闫松涛，1985年出生，男。

引用本文:

魏庆朝闫松涛. 铁路客站工程造价影响因素敏感性研究[J]. 铁道工程学报, 2015, 32(3): 107-.
WEI Qing-chao, YAN Song-tao. Sensitivity Analysis of the Influence Factors of the Construction Costs of Railway Station Buildings

. 铁道工程学报, 2015, 32(3): 107-.

链接本文:

http://tdgcxb.crec.cn/CN/ 或 http://tdgcxb.crec.cn/CN/Y2015/V32/I3/107

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