基于SEM-MNL模型的运输通道 出行方式选择行为研究

胡骥1,姚鸣2,刘艳1,唐林2,陈坚3

铁道工程学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4) : 80-85.

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PDF(770 KB)
铁道工程学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4) : 80-85.
枢纽、站场与房建

基于SEM-MNL模型的运输通道 出行方式选择行为研究

  • 胡骥1,姚鸣2,刘艳1,唐林2,陈坚3
作者信息 +

Research on the Travel Choice Behaviors of Transportation Corridor Based on SEM - MNL Model

  • HU Ji1,YAO Ming2,LIU Yan1,TANG Lin2,CHEN Jian3
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文章历史 +

摘要

摘要:研究目的:研究运输通道内旅客出行方式选择问题,对于合理规划运输通道、整合运输资源等方面具有 重要意义。目前所使用分析模型的预测精度和解释力存在不足,为此,本文从出行产生的内在机理人手,将出 行者心理潜在主观因素纳人效用函数中,利用结构方程模型,研究各种潜在和显性影响因素之间的相互关系,建立涵盖在潜在变量和显性变量共同作用的运输通道出行行为SEM- MNL模型,以提高分析的准确性和解 释力,并以成渝运输通道为例,进行实证分析。研究结论:( 1)潜在变量对出行者选择决策行为有显著影响;(2)研究结果显示,加人潜在变量的整合模 型检验指标比未考虑潜在变量的传统模型更优,模型的准确率有大幅提升;(3)该研究成果可应用于运输通 道 分析 等工作 。

Abstract

Abstract : Research purposes : The study of passenger travel mode choice in transportation corridor is the great significance for tlie rational planning of transport corridors and the integration of transportation resources. At present,the prediction accuracy and explanatory of the analytical model are insufficient. In order to improve the accuracy and explanatory of model, the paper uses structural equation modeling technique to study the relations between the observable and latent variables, and constructs transportation corridor SEM - MNL integrated model that covers observable and latent variables. The model includes travelers latent psychological factors to the utility function based on the mechanism of travel. As an example, an empirical analysis is carried out in Chengdu - Chongqing transportation corridor. Research conclusions:( 1 ) The latent variables have a significant influence on the choice decision of the traveler. (2) The results showthat goodness of fit of the integration model that added latent variable are better than the traditional model,the accuracy rate is also increased dramatically. (3 ) The research results can be applied to the structure analysis and configuration of transportation corridor.

关键词

关键词:运输通道 / 结构方程模型 / 决策机理 / 出行方式选择

Key words

Key words: transportation corridor / structural equation model / decision - making mechanism / travel mode choice

引用本文

导出引用
胡骥1, 姚鸣2, 刘艳1, . 基于SEM-MNL模型的运输通道 出行方式选择行为研究[J]. 铁道工程学报, 2017, 34(4): 80-85
HU Ji1, YAO Ming2, LIU Yan1, et al. Research on the Travel Choice Behaviors of Transportation Corridor Based on SEM - MNL Model[J]. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 2017, 34(4): 80-85

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