铁路工程价格指数调价因子确定方法

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摘要 研究目的:因物价波动引起的价格调整是工程合同争议的焦点问题,也是有效控制投资和营造公平和谐竞争环境的关键工作。本文基于FIDIC合同价格指数调价法基本思想和我国七个铁路工程项目概算资料,提出铁路工程价格指数调价因子确定三阶段方法:调价要素选择-组合因子数量确定-调价要素组合。
研究结论:(1)提出根据帕累托法则,选取材料费用占比在前50的构成要素作为调价要素;(2)提出分析不同组合项数与合同价格调整率关系以确定调价要素组合数量,并运用JAVA语言编制蒙特卡罗仿真程序;(3)提出以皮尔逊积距相关系数0.98为阈值进行调价要素组合;(4)基于案例项目概算数据与材料价格信息,建立了铁路站前土建工程8类材料调价因子;(5)本研究结论对铁路工程调价要素选择、组合,以及铁路工程价格指数体系构建具有理论与实践参考意义。

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	李晶晶
	申强强
	丁露
	张伟
	张飞涟

关键词 ：铁路工程, 价格指数, 调价因子, 调价要素, 蒙特卡罗模拟

Abstract：Research purposes: The price adjustment caused by price fluctuation is the focus on railway engineering contract disputes, and it is also the key work to effectively control investment and create a fair and harmonious competition environment. Based on the basic idea of FIDIC contract price index adjustment method and the budget estimates of seven railway engineering projects in China, this paper explores the method of price adjustment factor determination using price index in railway engineering: selection of price adjustment elements - determination of the number of combination factors-combination of price adjustment elements.
Research conclusions:(1) According to the Pareto principle, the constituent elements of the first 50 material cost are selected as price adjustment elements. (2) The relationship between the number of different combination items and the adjustment rate of contract price is analyzed to determine the combination number of adjustment elements. The Monte Carlo simulation program is compiled by JAVA language. (3) Pearson product distance correlation coefficient of 0.98 is used as the threshold for a combination of price adjustment elements. (4) Based on the budget data and material price information on the case project, eight price adjustment factors of railway civil works are established. (5) The research conclusion has theoretical and practical reference significance of the selection and combination of railway engineering price adjustment elements and the construction of railway engineering prices index system.

Key words： railway engineering price index price adjustment factor price adjustment element Monte Carlo simulation

收稿日期: 2022-01-22

PACS:

F532.3

作者简介: ^**李晶晶, 1979年出生,女,副教授。

引用本文:

李晶晶, 申强强, 丁露, 张伟, 张飞涟. 铁路工程价格指数调价因子确定方法[J]. 铁道工程学报, 2022, 39(9): 106-111.
LI Jingjing, SHEN Qiangqiang, DING Lu, ZHANG Wei, ZHANG Feilian. The Method of Price Adjustment Factor Determination Using Price Index in Railway Engineering. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 2022, 39(9): 106-111.

链接本文:

https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/CN/ 或 https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/CN/Y2022/V39/I9/106

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