高铁智能建造造价演变机理及SD估算方法研究<sup>*</sup>

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摘要 研究目的: 高铁智能建造技术不断创新与发展,然而现行的线性造价估算方法逐渐出现与之不匹配、不适应等问题。本文运用非线性复杂系统预测等方法,建立高铁智能建造造价非线性估算系统,主要以高铁智能建造造价为研究对象,通过挖掘其影响因素及其作用关系,建立高铁智能建造造价估算SD模型,为高铁智能建造造价控制优化提供决策支持。
研究结论: (1)分析验证了高铁智能建造实际造价随机性演变规律及趋势;(2)构建了高铁智能建造造价影响因素结构方程模型,确定了具有普适性的初步设计概算影响因素;(3)改革现行初步设计概算编制办法,屏蔽了现行概预算定额滞后性劣势,构建了以近端历史数据为依据的高铁智能建造基础数据库;(4)构建了高铁智能建造造价估算SD模型;(5)本文模型可为高铁智能建造造价管理提供决策支持。

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	段晓晨
	孟阳
	钱睿

关键词 ：高铁工程, 智能建造, 系统动力学模型, 非线性估算

Abstract：Research purposes: The intelligent construction technology of high-speed railway is constantly innovating and developing. However, the existing linear cost estimation methods are gradually mismatched and inadaptable. In this paper, a nonlinear estimation system of high-speed railway intelligent construction cost is established by using nonlinear complex system prediction and other methods. Taking the intelligent construction cost of high-speed railway as the research object, the SD model of intelligent construction cost estimation of high-speed railway is established by exploring its influencing factors and their functional relationships, providing decision support for the optimization of intelligent construction cost control of high-speed railway.
Research conclusions: (1) The random evolution law and trend of the actual cost of high-speed railway intelligent construction are analyzed and verified. (2) The structural equation analysis theoretical model of influencing factors of intelligent construction cost of high-speed railway are constructed, and the influencing factors of preliminary design estimate with universality are determined. (3) The current preliminary design estimate preparation method is reformed, the lag disadvantage of the current estimate and budget quota is shielded, and a basic database of high-speed railway intelligent construction is built based on near end historical data. (4) The SD model of intelligent construction cost estimation of high-speed railway is constructed. (5) The model established in this paper can provide decision support for intelligent construction cost management of high-speed railway.

Key words： high speed railway project intelligent construction system dynamics model nonlinear estimation

收稿日期: 2022-08-29

PACS:

G304

基金资助:河北省自然基金项目(G2019210226);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72071133);中铁建昆仑地铁投资建设管理有限公司开发项目(KLTZ-KX01-2020);河北省“巨人计划”第三批创新创业团队(冀办字[2018]33号)

作者简介: **段晓晨,1962年出生,男,教授,博士生导师。

引用本文:

段晓晨, 孟阳, 钱睿. 高铁智能建造造价演变机理及SD估算方法研究^*[J]. 铁道工程学报, 2023, 40(3): 110-116.
DUAN Xiaochen, MENG Yang, QIAN Rui. Research on the Evolution Mechanism and SD Estimation Method of Intelligent Construction Cost of High-speed Railway. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 2023, 40(3): 110-116.

链接本文:

https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/CN/ 或 https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/CN/Y2023/V40/I3/110

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