深谷大跨桥梁下部结构施工安全风险评价

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摘要 研究目的：随着铁路建设重心逐渐转向西南地区,深谷大跨桥梁被广泛应用于复杂艰险地区。针对深谷大跨桥梁潜在风险因素多、传统评估方法准确性有限等问题,本文以西南地区某深谷大跨桥梁为研究对象,建立基于德尔菲法（DELPHI）对工作-风险分解法（WBS-RBS）的风险识别优化体系,并开展基于模糊层次分析法（FAHP）与风险矩阵法（LS）结果耦合分析的风险评估研究,从风险辨识和评估两个环节提高评价结果的准确性和合理性。
研究结论：（1）通过DELPHI优化WBS-RBS,可全面准确识别潜在风险源,基于优化后的206项RBM识别结果确定了RBS风险分解结构体系;（2）采用三值耦合计算得出风险度辨析重大风险源,可避免单一值的偶然性对评估结果的影响,辨析出设备质量缺陷、人员无安全措施上岗作业和设备固定连接不牢等七个重大风险源;（3）除七个重大风险源以外,为提高评估过程的严谨性,施工方案编制不合理及洪水作为单一值较大的风险源仍需重点关注;（4）本文研究可为深谷大跨桥梁安全风险评价提供理论支撑和方法借鉴。

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	陈士通
	孟祥宇
	李林浩

关键词 ：深谷大跨桥梁, 风险识别, 风险评估

Abstract：Research purposes: As the center of gravity of railroad construction gradually shifts to the southwest region, deep valley long-span bridges are widely used in complex and dangerous areas. Aiming at the problems of many potential risk factors and limited accuracy of traditional assessment methods for deep valley span bridges, we take a deep valley span bridge in Southwest China as the research object, establish a risk identification and optimization system based on the Delphi method (DELPHI) versus the work-risk decomposition method (WBS-RBS) and carry out the risk assessment research based on the fuzzy hierarchical analysis method (FAHP) coupled with the results of the risk matrix method (LS) to improve the accuracy and rationality of the evaluation results from both risk identification and assessment.
Research conclusions: (1) The WBS-RBS is optimized by DELPHI, which can comprehensively and accurately identify potential risk sources, and the RBS risk decomposition structure system is determined based on the optimized 206 RBM identification results. (2) Adopting three-value coupling calculation to derive the risk degree to identify the significant risk sources can avoid the influence of single-value chance on the assessment results, and identify seven major risk sources, such as equipment quality defects, personnel working without safety measures, and equipment fixing connection is not secure. (3) In addition to the seven major risk sources, in order to improve the rigor of the assessment process, the unreasonable preparation of the construction program and flooding as a single-value risk source still need to be focused on. (4) The research in this paper can provide theoretical support and methodological reference for the safety risk evaluation of deep valley long-span bridges.

Key words： deep valley long-span bridge risk identification risk assessment

收稿日期: 2024-01-09

PACS:

U445

基金资助:河北省省级科技计划项目（225676104H）; 石家庄铁道大学研究生创新能力培养项目（YC202456）

作者简介: ** 陈士通,1977年出生,男,教授,博士生导师。

引用本文:

陈士通, 孟祥宇, 李林浩. 深谷大跨桥梁下部结构施工安全风险评价[J]. 铁道工程学报, 2024, 41(11): 112-117.
CHEN Shitong, MENG Xiangyu, LI Linhao. Safety Risk Evaluation of Substructure Construction of Deep Valley Long-span Bridges. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 2024, 41(11): 112-117.

链接本文:

https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/CN/ 或 https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/CN/Y2024/V41/I11/112

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