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| Research on the Forecast Metliods of Rail Transit Passenger Flow |
| LIU Yang, CHENG Ming - ji |
| (The Third Railway Survey and Design Institute Group Corporation, Tianjin 300251, China) |
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Abstract Abstract ： Research purposes ： In the previous study of rail transit project, especially during the rail transit network plan，passenger flowis the key basis for determining the network structure and corridors alignment. However, for the traditional forecast method， the workload is huge， the model setup and calculation are complicated， and the time required is long，so it is difficult to push the project forward. This paper discussed how to estimate the total passenger flow and section passenger flow quickly based on the traffic survey， which can take the result in short time as an important reference for the rail transit project. Research conclusions: (1) Rail transit passenger flow forecast can be based on the residents'travel OD survey. (2) According to the trip chain analysis and the functional zone, the total passenger flow and maximum section passenger flow are estimated. (3) Comparing the calculation passenger flow by the method and the exact passenger flow of Tianjin Metro Line 1, there is a very small difference, so the method discussed in this paper is credible. (4) It can be used for the rail transit passenger volume forecast and network scale estimated during the network plan，and it helps to enhance the digitization and credibility of the plan work.
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Received: 09 October 2015
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2015, Vol. 32 
