铁路桥梁与四电工程技术接口进度风险分析

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Abstract Research purposes: In order to realize the optimization control of the project schedule of the railway bridge in arduous mountainous areas, the technical interface between bridge and four electric/electronic systems engineering is the main research body, the risk impact of the construction of the technical interface is considered, a risk analysis model of the implementation schedule of the technical interface coupling BBNs and CSRAM is constructed.
Research conclusions:(1) Identify the potential risks in the construction of technical interfaces between railway bridges in arduous mountainous areas and the four electric/electronic systems engineering, use BBNs to quantify the non-superimposed impact of the risk relationship on the construction progress of the technical interfaces, and calculate the probability boundaries of risk factors for the technical interfaces. (2) Use the CSRAM method to analyze the random variation of risk factors in the construction process of the technical interface and the relationship between the risk factors and the construction schedule; by coupling the BBNs and CSRAM method, use the Monte Carlo method to simulate the implementation schedule risk of the technical interface, and carry out sensitivity analysis on risk factors. (3) Taking the Yarlung Zangbo River Bridge and the four electric/electronic systems engineering in Rongxiang as an example, the progress simulation and sensitivity analysis of their technical interfaces are carried out, the results show that the completion date of the technical interface under the influence of risk is 644 days and the completion probability is 89.92%. The implementation of the technical interface management is the most sensitive factor affecting the construction schedule of the technical interface. (4) This research can provide reference for the schedule management of railway bridge technical interface in difficult mountainous areas.

Key words： technical interface risk factors BBNs CSRAM method sensitivity analysis

Received: 20 August 2021

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	Articles by authors
	BAO Xueying
	LI Yajuan
	HU Suoting
	BAN Xinlin
	WANG Lin
	XU Jianchao

Cite this article:

BAO Xueying,LI Yajuan,HU Suoting, et al. Schedule Risk Analysis of Technical Interface between Railway Bridge and Four Electric/Electronic Systems Engineering[J]. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 2022, 39(9): 85-92.

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https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/EN/ OR https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/EN/Y2022/V39/I9/85

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