研究目的:城市轨道交通建设项目的决策和管理水平及其产生的效益越来越受到重视,后评价作为工程 项目全生命周期管理的重要环节,正是满足这一要求的最佳手段。本文借鉴建设项目后评价理论与方法，结 合城市轨道交通的特点，探讨基于客运量波动的城市轨道交通项目的财务效益后评价理论与方法。
研究结果:根据城市轨道交通项目的特点，本文分析了财务效益后评价的内容，并从客运量的波动性建立 城市轨道交通项目财务效益后评价的随机灰色系统模型，利用GM( 1,1)模型对客运量进行拟合和预测，以此 得到的客流数据作为财务效益后评价的基础数据。算例表明GM( 1,1)模型能较好地反映客运量的变化发展 规律,具有良好的外推性和准确度，适用于城市轨道交通项目的财务效益后评价。
Research purposes ； More and more attentions are paid to the decision-making level and management level of urban mass transit construction and its benefits. As an important management part of construction，the post-assessment is the best way for it. This paper discusses the post - assessment of financial benefits of urban mass transit construction based on the fluctuant passenger traffic volume.
Research results ： According to the characteristics of urban mass transit construction and fluctuant property of passenger traffic volume, this paper analyzes the content of the post - assessment of financial benefit and presents a stochastic gray systemic model for the post - assessment of financial benefit. Application of the GM (1,1) model forecasts and fits the passenger traffic volume to obtain passenger flow data as the basic data for the post -assessment of financial benefit so as to research the theory and method for post - assessment of financial benefit of urban mass transit construction. The calculation result shows that the GM (1,1) model can better indicate the change rules of passenger traffic volume with good extrapolating property and precision and can be applied in the post-assessment of financial benefit of urban rail transit construction.
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