研究目的:为解决《铁路隧道风险评估及管理暂行规定》和《地铁及地下工程建设风险管理指南》在使用 中的困难，找出满足要求且简单、可操作性强的评估方法。
研究结论:(1)经计算表明，在深圳地铁一号线百货广场处桩基主动托换的各风险因素中，施工图设计阶 段的风险、截桩风险及用千斤顶预顶的风险较大.施工场地环境风险和其它不可抗力因素风险相对较小;(2) 得尔菲法与层次分析法相结合可以得到半定量的分析结果，计算精度可以满足《铁路隧道风险评估及管理暂 行规定》和《地铁及地下工程建设风险管理指南》中对风险评估的要求;(3)得尔菲法与层次分析法相结合适 用于简单工程或者复杂工程单个工点的风险评估，同时也适用于复杂工程的风险识别。
Research purposes： In order to resolve the difficulties in using”Interim Rules of Risk Evaluating and Management on Railway Tunnels" and”Guideline of Risk Management for Construction of Subway and Underground Works"，this paper finds out a risk analysis method with simple used and maneuverability.
Research conclusions ：(1)The result indicates that the risks of working drawing design, piling cut and pre-jack are greater than the ones of construction conditions and others.(2)The method of De1Phi uniting AHP could get the half-quantity result, which could meet the requests of”Interim Rules of Risk Evaluating and Management on Railway Tunnels" and "Guideline of Risk Management for Construction of Subway and Underground Works".( 3 ) 1'he method of De1Phi uniting AHP holds true for risk evaluating of simple works and risk identity of complex projects.
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