摘要:研究目的:受全球变暖和人类经济活动影响，青藏高原地区植被衰退、荒漠化加剧，使多年冻土的物理、 力学特性发生变化，路基的稳定性面临挑战。针对气温升高对冻土路基稳定性的影响，以青藏铁路多年冻土 路基地温实测数据及物探检测数据为基础，采用数值模拟的研究方法，对冻土路基的稳定性进行分析和预测， 得出地温传递的物理过程和融区的变化规律，为路基长期稳定性分析和维护方案制定提供依据。研究结论：(1)随着时间的推移，路基修筑区多年冻土呈现出逐年退化的趋势，片石路基上限退化速度小 于普通路基(（2)路基本体内地温分布受不同坡向吸热影响，温度场分布存在局部不对称性；（3)与普通路基 相比，片石路基的片石层对路基本体及以下土体能够起到较好的降温隔热作用；（4)路基中心线以下15 m深度处的年平均地温低于天然地表以下15 m深度处的年平均地温，且逐年上升；（5)片石路基、普通路基、天然 地表下的人为上限逐年下降，下降速度依次升高;（6)本研究成果对青藏铁路及多年冻土区道路工程规划、设计、工程有指导作用 。

Abstract ： Research purposes ： Influenced by global warming and human economic activities，the vegetation is declining and desertification is deteriorating in the Qinghai – Tibet Plateau，and the physical and mechanical properties of permafrost change，so the stability of the roadbed is facing challenges. In view of the influence of temperature rise on the stability of frozen soil roadbed， the research method of numerical simulation is adopted to analyze and predict the stability of the frozen soil roadbed based on the data of temperature measurement and geophysical prospecting data of permafrost roadbed in Qinghai - Tibet railway. Furthermore，the physical process of the ground temperature transferring and the changing law of tiie thawing area are obtained，providing the basis for tiie analysis of tiie long - term stability of the roadbed and the formulation of t!ie maintenance program. Research conclusions ： (1) Witii the pasage of time，construction of roadbed in permafrost regions shows a trend of gradual degradation， and the limit of the degradation speed of riprap embankment is less than that of the common roadbed. (2) Due to the basic body temperature distribution under endothermic effects on different slopes，the partial temperature field is asymmetric. (3) Compared with the common roadbed； layers of riprap roadbed can play a better cooling and heat insulation ：fect on the roadbed body and the soil below. (4) The annual average temperature of 15 meters belowthe center line of the roadbed is lower than that of 15 meters below the natural surface and increases year by year. (5) The artificial upper limit of riprap roadbed，common roadbed and natural surface decreases annually and the declining rates increase in turn. (6)The research results have guiding significance for the planning， design and construction ； operation and maintenance of the Qinghai – Tibetrailway and the permafrost regions.