Abstract：Research purposes: The passenger flow of the Shenzhen rail transit of the first － phase has been in the top of China since it opening to traffic and the passenger flows of some stations have arrived at the design capacity． If the passenger flow is more than the traffic capacity，there is big risk to the operation of the metro． In order to avoid the risk， it is necessary to verify the actual passenger flow with the forecasted passenger flow and evaluate the factors that effect the rising of the passengers flow．
Research conclusions: Based on the statistics of the metro operation and design data ，this paper reviews the result of the forecasted passenger flow and qualitatively analyzed the influence factors when the passenger flow is more than the design capacity． It is concluded that the passengers flow will rise severely after the metro network is established in Shenzhen，and it suggests more cars should be installed for Shenzhen metro to deal with rapid increase of the passenger flow．
An Shuanzhuang， Wang Bo， Li Xiaoxia． The Illumination of Forecasting of Metro Passenger Volumes from Operation on Peking Metro NO． 5 ［J］． Urban Rapid Mass Transit，2008( 6) : 14 － 18．
2011, Vol. 28 
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