Abstract：Research purposes: Predicting traffic volume is the important base for making a proposal to construction of railway passenger dedicated line and it is also the important base for making evaluation of the economic benefits of the line, so it is necessary to do the research on the method of establishing model for predicting the traffic volume of passenger dedicated line for the purpose of guiding construction of passenger dedicated line.
Research conclusions: Predicting the base-line traffic volume of the other traffic mode competing with the passenger dedicated line is the base of prediction of transfer traffic volume. General speaking, the base-line traffic volume is predicted with regression analysis method and extensive prediction method. The transfer traffic volume can be predicted by adopting time value model and the induced traffic volume can be predicted with the differential form of gravitation model. The predicted traffic volume of passenger dedicated line should be the sum of transfer traffic volume and induced traffic volume and based on which the density of the passenger flow in the different sections can be calculated, so this method can be used for prediction of traffic volume of passenger dedicated line.
任民. 铁路客运专线运量预测方法研究[J]. 铁道工程学报, 2008, 25(5): 89-92.
REN Min. Study on Method of Predicting the Traffic Volume of Railway Passenger Dedicated Line. 铁道工程学报, 2008, 25(5): 89-92.
2008, Vol. 25 
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