摘要：研究目的：隧道塌方事故往往会伴随重大的财产和经济损失，严重时还会危及隧道内人员的人身安全。 隧道塌方的预测研究一直是隧道工程的一项科研难题，但目前国内外针对软岩隧道塌方的研究却较少。软岩 隧道的塌方经历瞬时应变到蠕变再到突然破坏的过程，具有突发性和不确定性。因此展开软岩隧道围岩塌方 的预测研究，对于避免塌方事故造成损失具有重要意义。 研究结论：(1)以十房高速公路某隧道塌方事故为背景，在尖点突变理论的基础上，建立软岩隧道的突变 失稳预测模型，推导出围岩失稳判据；（2)结合现场监测数据对尖点突变失稳预测模型进行验证，通过预测模 型判断出隧道围岩稳定性，计算隧道从支护到塌方的时间为48. 045 d，与实际情况的49 d较为吻合;（3)该研 究成果可以在实际工程中预测软弱围岩塌方的时间，为避免塌方灾害事故并采取相应措施提供依据。

Abstract ： Research purposes ： Tunnel collapse accidents often cause major property and economic losses， and even endanger the safety of the tunnel construction personnel. The prediction of tunnel collapse has been a diicult problem in tunnel engineering，and the research on the collapse of soft rock tunnel at home and abroad is less. Soft rock tunnel collapse experiences a process from instantaneous strain to creep to sudden failure，with sudden and uncertainty. Therefore，the prediction of surrounding rock collapse of soft rock tunnel is studid，in order to avoid collapse. Research conclusions ：( 1) Taking the collapse accident of tlie tunnel of Shifang highway as the engineering background， the catastrophe model of soft rock tunnel is established，which is based on the cusp catastrophe theory. The criterion of instability of surrounding rock is deduced. (2) Combined with monitoring data of tunnel，the prediction model of cusp catastrophe instability is verified，and the stability of tunnel surrounding rock can be judged by the prediction model. The calculated time of tunnel collapse is 48. 045 d，which is in good agreement witli the actual time of 49 d. ( 3 ) The research results can predict tlie time of collapse of soft rock in actual engineering，in order to avoid the accident and to provide the basis for the corresponding measures.