|
|
FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION TO RISK OF THE RAILWAY PROJECT CONTRACT |
WANG Wei-gang1, LIU Jun'e2, LIU Jing-yan3 |
1China Railway 16TM Group Co, Ltd; 2Beijing Wuzi University; 3Tianjin University |
|
|
Abstract Research purposes: Aiming at the variable cause and the high degree of destroy and damage of the railway project construction risks, this paper explores an effective appraise method combining nature and quality together so as to improve the bid efficiency and the construction benefit.
Research methods: Based on the fully analyze of the risk of the railway project construction the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation in comprehensive appraisal for Railway Project Contract risk was detailed described. Firstly, the risks in the railway project contract including technological risks, environmental risks, personal risks, have been penetrated in to and the appraise index system was build up based on the risks analysis. Then, every risk factor was given a relatively mark by the experienced technical staff to form the estimate matrix following by the principle of analytic hierarchy process. So the significance weights of the appraise indexes were calculated. Thirdly, every risk factor was given a mark by experts consulting the criterion of risk grade, so the subjection function and subjection matrix formed. Multiplayer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was carried on to give the final result.
Research results: At the end of the text the case of China Railway 16TM Group Co., Ltd bidding for tunnel named Wu Shaoling which belongs to the Lan Wu railway was applied to qualify scientific and feasibility of the method.
Research conclusions: This text will offer some reference to the risk management for railway project contractor.
|
Received: 30 September 2005
|
|
|
|
|
[1] |
雷胜强.国际工程风险管理与保险[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1996.
|
[3] |
何华,周智勇.建筑企业风险管理体系的构建[J].企业经济,2004,(1):68-69.
|
[5] |
丁香乾,石硕.层次分析法在项口风险管理中的应用[J].中国海洋大学学报2004,(1):97-102.
|
[7] |
吕蓬,孙薇,孙颖,张帆.基于层次分析的电力营销目标市场模糊评判[J].华北电力大学学报2004(1):77-79.
|
[2] |
田元福,李慧民.工程项目施工阶段的风险评估研究[J].兰州交通大学学报(自然科学版),2004(2):19-22.
|
[4] |
王子义.国际工程投标中的风险管理[D].北京:对外经济贸易大学,2002.
|
[6] |
姚敏.模糊决策方法研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1999(11):61-64.
|
|
|
|