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Study on the Model for Predicting the Passenger Volume of Rail Communication Station |
LI Ming1, WANG Hai-xia2 |
1. China Railway Engineering Consultants Group, Beijing 100055, China; 2. China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing 100029, China |
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Abstract Research purposes:Based on the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of conventional four-stage passenger volume prediction model, the travel mode share prediction model is modified for the purposes of enhancing the accuracy of passenger volume prediction and providing the basis for design of platform size and other facilities of rail communication station.
Research conclusions:The concept of "Traveler Income Level" has been used for the travel mode share prediction mode,l a new travel mode resistance function is defined, and also, a new improved four-stage passenger volume prediction model is presented. Finally, taking Wukesong Station of line 1 of Beijing subway as an example, the peak passenger volume of Wukesong Station is predicted forecast with the method presented in this paper. Through comparison of the predicted volume with actual passenger volume, it is proved that the method is a quick and efficient method for predicting passenger volume.
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Received: 02 October 2008
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