Research conclusions：The main influencing factors can be considered with probability integration method. The calculation parameters for the rock displacement should be rationally chosen for precise prediction of the result of surface deformation in goaf in accordance with the geological conditions, coal storing volume and technological condition. The analysis indicates that the railway route in the original plan locates in the influencing range of coalmine goafs and the deformation value exceeds the allowable value. So, the goafs should be treated or railway route should be adjusted to ensure the safety of high-speed railway. However, there are lots of the factors to influence displacement deformation of the rock, so the calculation parameters should be chosen according to surveyed data.