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| Study of Dynamic Prediction and Control about Tunnel Construction Schedule and Cost |
| HU Lan1，LI Tao2, QIU Wen-ge2 |
1. College of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Transportation Tunnel Engineering, Ministry of Education, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031, China
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Abstract Abstract：Research purposes：Fuzziness, randomness and uncertainty in tunnel geological conditions and construction, made its actual schedule and cost dynamic and variable in the construction process, increasing the difficulty to control. How to integrate its impact factor for predicting and controlling tunnel construction schedule and cost dynamically still need to be further studied.
Research conclusions：（1） With the main hole mileage in tunnel as the principal axis, drilled footage per month and cost in single linear meter of tunnel surrounding rock classification, tunnel surrounding rock change probability, risk accident statistical parameters(probability of occurrence, the processing time and cost under different level of risk) were selected as random variables, then a function relation model of tunnel construction schedule and cost was built by Monte Carlo Simulation. （2） The tunnel dynamic control evaluation index and evaluation standard was set up on top of that. A new decision method was provided for project managers by getting a full grasp with actual construction state timely and adjusting plans of schedule and cost quickly and accurately. （3） An empirical study of double-line tunnel tested its practicability and feasibility, to use for reference in similar projects.
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