Research on the Forming Mechanism and Technical Prediction Framework of the IPF of HSR

YAO Ming; LI Feng

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Journal of Railway Engineering Society ›› 2014, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2) : 1-6.

Research on the Forming Mechanism and Technical Prediction Framework of the IPF of HSR

YAO Ming1, LI Feng2

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Abstract

Research purposes: In recent years, the economic accessibility models are usually applied in the predictions of the Induced Passenger Flow of the High Speed Railway (IPF of HSR) in referring to foreign evidential data .But the results cannot usually represent the actual induced passenger flow, and the consequent errors usually exceed. Based on the analyses of the concept, mechanism, characteristics, growth periods of IPF of HSR, this paper put forward the overall prediction framework of IPF of HSR respectively, in order to develop a set of methods and models both reasonable and feasible for the predictions of IPF of HSR.

Conclusions: The IPF of HSR should be classified as Short-term Induced Economic Passenger Flow from various potential trip demand (SIPF) and Long-term Induced Passenger Flow from growth (LIPF).The depends mainly on old and new potential trip demand, and the LIPF on the induced ecomic-growth of various SIPF cities along the corridor. The growing process of IPF of HSR includes the beginning term with rapid growth, medium term with stable growth, and final term with converging growth. It can be descriped as a S-shape logistic curve and should be forcasted by means of respective methods and models for SIPF and LIPF. In this paper, the prediction framework which combines tranditional prediction methods and MD models is put forward for SIPF, and another one based on economic accessibility models and the stable value-traffic ratio models is put forward for LIPF. (4) The research results can be used in the development of prediction software for IPF of HSR.

Key words

high speed railway / induced passenger flow / Induced Economic / technical prediction framework

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YAO Ming, LI Feng. Research on the Forming Mechanism and Technical Prediction Framework of the IPF of HSR[J]. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 2014, 31(2): 1-6

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