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| Prediction Analysis of Surrounding Rock Collapse in Soft Rock Tunnel by Cusp Catastrophe |
| XU Hai - qing1，CHEN Liang2，WANG Wei3，CHEN Jian - ping3 |
| (1. Wuhan Metro Group Co. Ltd，Wuhan，Hubei 430030，China; 2. Materials and Structural Department，Changjiang
River Scientific Research Institute，Changjiang Water Resources Commission，Wuhan，Hubei 430010，China; 3. China University of Geosciences，Wuhan，Hubei 430074，China) |
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Abstract Abstract ： Research purposes ： Tunnel collapse accidents often cause major property and economic losses， and even endanger the safety of the tunnel construction personnel. The prediction of tunnel collapse has been a diicult problem in tunnel engineering，and the research on the collapse of soft rock tunnel at home and abroad is less. Soft rock tunnel
collapse experiences a process from instantaneous strain to creep to sudden failure，with sudden and uncertainty.
Therefore，the prediction of surrounding rock collapse of soft rock tunnel is studid，in order to avoid collapse.
Research conclusions ：( 1) Taking the collapse accident of tlie tunnel of Shifang highway as the engineering background， the catastrophe model of soft rock tunnel is established，which is based on the cusp catastrophe theory. The criterion of
instability of surrounding rock is deduced. (2) Combined with monitoring data of tunnel，the prediction model of cusp
catastrophe instability is verified，and the stability of tunnel surrounding rock can be judged by the prediction model.
The calculated time of tunnel collapse is 48. 045 d，which is in good agreement witli the actual time of 49 d. ( 3 ) The research results can predict tlie time of collapse of soft rock in actual engineering，in order to avoid the accident and to provide the basis for the corresponding measures.
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Received: 22 July 2016
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2016, Vol. 33 
