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| Research on the Risk Transmission in the Construction Stage of Urban Rail Transit Project |
| LIU Weiqing, ZHANG Hao, XU Zhifen |
| Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050043, China |
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Abstract Research purposes: A large number of participants, as well as the connections between them, constitute a network of project activity nodes in the process of urban rail transit project construction. The internal and external risk factors of the project interact with the activity nodes, and these factors conduct risk transmission along the links between nodes in the network, so the impact is difficult to control. Therefore, this research uses the infectious disease model of network transmission dynamics for reference, simulates the risk transmission mechanism, adjusts different parameters, and explores the changes of risk transmission speed and scope, so as to provide reference for construction managers to implement risk decision-making.
Research conclusions: (1) Using the SIR warehouse model to simulate the risk transmission process of the active node network during the construction phase of urban rail transit projects, the results show that reducing the effective transmission rate or increasing the unit's successful elimination rate can effectively curb risk transmission. (2) When the actual risk conductivity is greater than 1, it means that the information carried by risk factors is uncertain for participants. Once a risk event occurs, passive solutions need to reduce or cut off the connection between participants and risk factors in time. Safe and reliable resources can replace materials with risk impact in time to avoid the collapse of the overall network. (3) When the actual risk conductivity is less than 1, it means that the risk factors are relatively complete and accurate for the participants. Participants can take proactive precautions. According to the risk factors that have been mastered, the risk management capability of each activity node in the construction phase of urban rail transit projects is improved, and project management systems and emergency plans are formulated to help participants affected by risks return to normal operation as soon as possible.
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Received: 26 February 2021
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2022, Vol. 39 
