高铁智能建造造价演变机理及SD估算方法研究<sup>*</sup>

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Abstract Research purposes: The intelligent construction technology of high-speed railway is constantly innovating and developing. However, the existing linear cost estimation methods are gradually mismatched and inadaptable. In this paper, a nonlinear estimation system of high-speed railway intelligent construction cost is established by using nonlinear complex system prediction and other methods. Taking the intelligent construction cost of high-speed railway as the research object, the SD model of intelligent construction cost estimation of high-speed railway is established by exploring its influencing factors and their functional relationships, providing decision support for the optimization of intelligent construction cost control of high-speed railway.
Research conclusions: (1) The random evolution law and trend of the actual cost of high-speed railway intelligent construction are analyzed and verified. (2) The structural equation analysis theoretical model of influencing factors of intelligent construction cost of high-speed railway are constructed, and the influencing factors of preliminary design estimate with universality are determined. (3) The current preliminary design estimate preparation method is reformed, the lag disadvantage of the current estimate and budget quota is shielded, and a basic database of high-speed railway intelligent construction is built based on near end historical data. (4) The SD model of intelligent construction cost estimation of high-speed railway is constructed. (5) The model established in this paper can provide decision support for intelligent construction cost management of high-speed railway.

Key words： high speed railway project intelligent construction system dynamics model nonlinear estimation

Received: 29 August 2022

PACS:

G304

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	Articles by authors
	DUAN Xiaochen
	MENG Yang
	QIAN Rui

Cite this article:

DUAN Xiaochen,MENG Yang,QIAN Rui. Research on the Evolution Mechanism and SD Estimation Method of Intelligent Construction Cost of High-speed Railway[J]. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 2023, 40(3): 110-116.

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https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/EN/ OR https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/EN/Y2023/V40/I3/110

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