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| Analysis of Suburban Railway Passenger Flow Characteristics and Demand Forecast in China |
| SHUAI Bin，ZHANG Yue，ZHANG Yong-chao |
| Southwest Jiao tong University，Chengdu，Sichuan 610031，China |
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Abstract Research purposes: Suburban railway is gradually becoming a link of cities to suburbs and cities to cities. As an important transportation mode，it meets long-distance，large-capacity transport requirements. Characteristic Analysis and passenger demand forecast have very important roles for the suburban railway planning and operations. We use Beijing Suburban Railway Line S2 as the research object and analyze the characteristics of suburban railway passenger and passenger demand forecasting methods. They lay the foundation of the suburban railway for a long-term development.
Research conclusions:(1)Suburban railway has time distribution characteristics on morning and evening peak and highly holiday traffic，spatial distribution characteristics on unbalanced uplink and downlink traffic density and highly concentrated passenger flow. ( 2)In a special period，suburban railway passenger flow has volatility and randomness. It is suitable for the gray GM(1，1)model to predict passenger flow. In the study on Beijing S2 line，we achieved high prediction accuracies and satisfaction predictions.(3)The paper has a certain reference value for long term forecasting research work of the city 's suburban railway traffic. It also provides a theoretical basis on the suburban railway construction
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Received: 21 October 2013
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2014, Vol. 31 
