海外高铁建设项目投资风险渐进决策方法研究<sup>*</sup>

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Abstract Research purposes: Aiming at the problems of high investment failure rate and lack of scientific and effective investment decision-making methods for China's high-speed railway "Go-Global" under the background of "Belt and Road Initiative", based on the perspective of enterprises and on the basis of risk decision-making, combined with the investment characteristics of overseas high-speed railway construction projects, it establishes a progressive decision-making model of investment risk, which provides a new way of thinking for the investment decision-making of overseas high-speed railway construction projects.
Research conclusions: (1) Breaking through the limitations of the single object, method and form of the previous research, it adopts a more rigorous longitudinal progressive decision-making framework to study the risk of China's high-speed railway enterprises' overseas investment. (2) The method of Grounded Theory is adopted to refine decision-making indicators, and a two-layer decision-making indicator system is established for macro-location environment and micro-project characteristics. (3) The methods such as ELM and Nonlinear Combination Empowerment Cloud Model are introduced into investment risk decision-making of overseas high-speed railway construction projects, to effectively reduce the influence of experts' subjectivity and enhance the dynamics and accuracy of decision-making. (4) The research results can provide realistic support for China's high-speed railway "Go-Global" enterprises to make scientific and effective investment decisions in the international engineering market.

Key words： overseas high-speed railway construction projects investment risks progressive decision

Received: 18 September 2023

PACS:

F530.3

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	Articles by authors
	QU Daoyuan
	MENG Chuncheng
	MENG Yang
	DUAN Xiaochen

Cite this article:

QU Daoyuan,MENG Chuncheng,MENG Yang, et al. Research on the Progressive Decision-making Method of Investment Risks in Overseas High-speed Railway Construction Projects[J]. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 2024, 41(7): 121-126.

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https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/EN/ OR https://tdgcxb.crec.cn/EN/Y2024/V41/I7/121

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